Average 2027 budget
3.5%
Surveys range 3.3% to 3.6%
Of which merit
3.0%
Payscale's merit share
CPI inflation
3.7%
12 months to September 2026
Core inflation
2.6%
Excluding food and energy
Budgets from the named salary surveys; inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After-tax figures on this page are PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimates (federal income tax and FICA, no state tax).
2027 raise calculator: what your raise is worth after tax
Put in your salary and the raise you expect. The checker taxes your current pay on 2026 rules and your new pay on 2027 rules, the way your paychecks will actually work.
Extra take-home a year
$2,127
About $82 a paycheck (biweekly) from $2,625 gross
Share of the raise you keep
81%
Take-home up 3.5%, against 3.5% gross
Against 3.7% inflation
-0.2%
You'd need 3.8% to keep pace
PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate. Your current salary is taxed on 2026 rules and the raised salary on 2027 rules (projected federal brackets, standard deduction only, and the $192,300 Social Security wage base). Federal income tax and employee FICA only: no state or local tax, 401(k), health premiums or credits. Inflation: BLS CPI-U, 12 months to September 2026.
Average raise 2027: what the salary surveys say
Compensation consultancies survey employers every spring and summer about next year's salary increase budget, the pot of money set aside for raises. This year they agree unusually closely. Most see 2027 flat on 2026, with a tenth of a point either way.
| Survey | Measure | 2027 budget | 2026 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| WorldatWork | Average | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Payscale | Average | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Mercer / Marsh | Average | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| The Conference Board | Median | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| WTW | Average | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Korn Ferry | Average | 3.3% | 3.4% |
Two things the headline hides. First, the budget isn't all merit pay: in Payscale's survey 3.0% of the 3.5% goes to merit raises, and the rest to promotions, market adjustments and other increases. Second, it's an average. Employers increasingly give top performers well above the budget and average performers less, so the same 3.5% pot produces very different raises inside one company.
2027 raises by industry
| Industry | 2027 forecast | 2026 actual |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace and defense | 4.5% | 5.1% |
| Business services | 4.5% | 3.9% |
| Legal services | 4.2% | 4.4% |
| Pharma and biotech | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Construction | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Manufacturing | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Financial services | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Technology (including software) | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Retail | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Healthcare and social assistance | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Government | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Telecommunications | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Payscale Salary Budget Survey, August 2026 (selected industries). Regional budgets range only from 3.3% in the Northeast to 3.6% in the Middle Atlantic and West.
Tech workers should note the dip: software and technology employers plan 3.4%, below what they paid this year. Pay growth there is going to scarce skills such as AI rather than across the board, which our software engineer salary guide and AI engineer pay comparison track by level.
Why a 3.5% raise is worth about 3.5% after tax, and still trails inflation
Unlike some countries, the US indexes its income tax brackets and standard deduction to inflation every year, so a raise doesn't push you into a higher bracket just by keeping up with prices. In our modelling a 3.5% raise on $75,000 adds 3.5% to take-home pay on the projected 2027 brackets, compared with 3.0% if the brackets had stayed at 2026 levels. See the 2027 tax brackets for the figures, which we update when the IRS publishes them.
The problem is the other side of the equation. Headline CPI jumped to 3.7% in September, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the monthly rise. Core inflation is 2.6%. If energy prices settle, a 3.5% raise could end up ahead in real terms over 2027; if they don't, it won't.
| Salary now | 3.5% raise, take-home | You keep | Raise to match 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | +$1,193 (3.5%) | 85% | 3.7% |
| $60,000 | +$1,755 (3.5%) | 84% | 3.7% |
| $75,000 | +$2,127 (3.5%) | 81% | 3.8% |
| $100,000 | +$2,743 (3.5%) | 78% | 3.8% |
| $150,000 | +$3,947 (3.5%) | 75% | 3.8% |
| $250,000 | +$6,184 (3.4%) | 71% | 3.9% |
PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate: single filer, standard deduction, federal income tax and employee FICA; current salary on 2026 rules, raised salary on 2027 rules. No state or local tax, 401(k) or benefits. State tax lowers the “you keep” share; see no-tax vs high-tax states.
How to ask for more than the average raise
- Benchmark your role. Check your job on our US salary pages or run the Am I underpaid checker. Being below market for your level is a stronger argument than inflation.
- Ask before budgets lock. Raise budgets are usually set months before raises take effect, and many employers settle next year's numbers in the fall. Raise it with your manager now, not at the review.
- Separate merit from market. If your pay has fallen behind the market, ask for a market adjustment on top of your merit raise; many employers budget for both.
- Use an outside offer carefully. It's the strongest evidence of your market value. Compare it properly with the offer checker and the take-home calculator, including state tax.
- Redirect part of it. The 401(k) limit and HSA limit both rise for 2027; raising your contribution with your raise cuts your taxable pay.
See your raise paycheck by paycheck
State tax, pay frequency and pre-tax deductions in the paycheck calculator.
Average raise 2027: frequently asked questions
What is the average raise for 2027?
About 3.5%. The main US salary budget surveys project 3.3% to 3.6% for 2027: Payscale and Mercer/Marsh at 3.5% on average, the Conference Board at a 3.5% median, WTW at 3.4% and WorldatWork at 3.6%. That is a budget across all employees, so your own raise depends on performance, role and employer.
Is a 3% raise good in 2027?
It's a little below the going rate and below inflation. Budgets average 3.5%, and CPI rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026. After tax a 3% raise lifts take-home pay by roughly 3%, so in real terms it's a small pay cut unless inflation falls during 2027. If you're a strong performer, it's reasonable to ask why you're below the budget.
What raise do I need to keep up with inflation in 2027?
Slightly more than the inflation rate. To lift take-home pay by 3.7%, a single filer on $75,000 needs a raise of about 3.8%, PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate from federal tax and FICA. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, is lower at 2.6%, so if gasoline prices ease the bar comes down too.
Why does my raise look smaller on my paycheck?
Usually because of what comes out before your check. A 401(k) set as a percentage grows with your raise, state income tax takes its share, and health premiums may rise in January at the same time. Federal withholding also moves to the new IRS tables in January. Check your first 2027 paycheck stub line by line, and update your W-4 if you also changed jobs or have a second income.
Do federal tax brackets eat into a raise?
Much less than people expect, because the IRS adjusts brackets and the standard deduction for inflation every year. In our modelling a 3.5% raise on $75,000 lifts take-home by 3.5% under the projected 2027 brackets, against 3.0% if the brackets had stayed at 2026 levels. Moving into a higher bracket only taxes the dollars above the line, never your whole salary.
Which industries plan the biggest raises in 2027?
In Payscale's survey, aerospace and defense and business services lead at 4.5%, followed by legal services at 4.2% and pharma and biotech at 4.0%. Technology, including software, plans 3.4%, down from 3.6% actually paid in 2026. Government sits at 3.0% and telecommunications at 2.5%.
I earn more than $184,500. Does the Social Security change affect my raise?
A little. The Social Security wage base rises from $184,500 to $192,300 in 2027, so if you earn above the old cap you pay up to $484 more in Social Security tax on the same pay. Our Social Security 2027 guide shows the effect by salary.
Related: Social Security 2027 · How to fill out a W-4 · Federal take-home and FICA explained
Sources and method
Salary budgets: WorldatWork Salary Budget Survey (topline July 2026) and its comparison of other providers; Payscale Salary Budget Survey (August 2026, 1,266 organizations); WTW Salary Budget Planning Report (July 2026). Inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index, released 14 October 2026.
After-tax figures are PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimates: federal income tax with the standard deduction (2027 brackets as projected by Thomson Reuters Checkpoint until the IRS publishes them) and employee Social Security and Medicare, including the $192,300 wage base for 2027. They leave out state and local tax, credits, retirement and health deductions. This is general information, not personal tax or financial advice.