Expected median award
3.0%
Brightmine and CIPD
Firms' wage growth outlook
3.4%
Bank of England panel
Pay growth now
3.7%
ONS, June to August 2026
CPI inflation
3.5%
September 2026
Forecasts and actuals from the named surveys and the ONS. Every after-tax figure on this page is PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate on 2027/28 rules for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Pay rise 2027 calculator: what your rise is worth after tax
Enter your salary and the rise you've been offered, or the one you plan to ask for. The checker shows what reaches your bank account and whether it beats inflation.
Extra take-home a year
£864
£72 a month from £1,200 gross
Share of the rise you keep
72%
Take-home up 2.7%, against 3.0% gross
Against 3.5% inflation
-0.8%
You'd need 3.9% gross to keep pace
On £40,000, a rise of 3.9% keeps your take-home level with today's 3.5% CPI, and 2.9% with the 2.6% forecast for 2027. The median employer plans 3.0%.
PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate. Both salaries are taxed on 2027/28 rules for England, Wales and Northern Ireland as currently legislated (thresholds frozen): income tax and employee National Insurance, no pension, salary sacrifice or student loan. Scotland has its own income tax bands. Inflation: ONS CPI for September 2026; 2027 forecast from OECD (September 2026).
What pay rise to expect in 2027: the forecasts
Three employer surveys point to the same number. Brightmine, which tracks pay settlements, says the median award has sat at 3.0% through the three months to August 2026 and expects the same for the year ahead. The CIPD's quarterly survey of HR decision-makers has had a 3.0% median for more than a year. Finance chiefs in the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel say their wage growth is 4.0% now and expect 3.4% over the next twelve months.
Why so flat? In Brightmine's survey the main brakes are affordability and the higher employer National Insurance bill from April 2025. Pushing the other way are inflation, rival employers' pay and the minimum wage. Actual pay growth in the ONS figures (3.7%) runs above settlements because it also captures promotions, job moves and changes in who is employed.
| Source | Measure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brightmine | Median pay award expected, next 12 months | 3.0% | 261 employers, 24 September 2026 |
| CIPD Labour Market Outlook | Median expected basic pay award | 3.0% | 2,017 employers, Summer 2026 |
| Bank of England Decision Maker Panel | Firms' expected wage growth, year ahead | 3.4% | September 2026 survey, down from 4.0% now |
| ONS average weekly earnings | Regular pay growth, whole economy (actual) | 3.7% | June to August 2026 |
| ONS consumer prices | CPI inflation (actual) | 3.5% | 12 months to September 2026 |
Why a 3% pay rise is a real-terms cut after tax
Inflation is measured on what you spend, which comes out of take-home pay. A rise is taxed at your marginal rate, the rate on your top pound, which is higher than your average rate. So take-home pay grows more slowly than gross pay, and a rise that matches inflation on paper falls short in your account.
The freeze makes it worse each year. The £12,570 Personal Allowance and £50,270 higher-rate threshold stay fixed until April 2031, so rises push more income into the 40% band. Our fiscal drag guide explains that mechanism in full; the table below shows what it means for a 3.0% rise.
| Salary now | 3.0% rise, take-home | You keep | Rise to match 3.5% | Rise to match 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £25,000 | +£540 (2.5%) | 72% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
| £35,000 | +£756 (2.6%) | 72% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| £49,000 | +£1,030 (2.7%) | 70% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| £60,000 | +£1,044 (2.3%) | 58% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| £80,000 | +£1,392 (2.4%) | 58% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| £100,000 | +£1,140 (1.7%) | 38% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| £130,000 | +£2,067 (2.6%) | 53% | 4.1% | 3.0% |
PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimate: both salaries taxed on 2027/28 income tax and employee NI for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, as legislated, no pension or student loan. 2.6% is the OECD (September 2026) CPI forecast for 2027.
Two rows stand out. At £49,000 the rise straddles the £50,270 threshold, so part of it is taxed at 40%. At £100,000 you keep only 38% because the Personal Allowance tapers away: see the 60% tax trap guide, and the childcare cliff if you use funded childcare hours.
Public sector vs private sector pay rises in 2027
On the ONS figures, public sector regular pay grew 6.3% in June to August 2026 against 3.0% in the private sector. The ONS warns the public figure is inflated by when this year's awards landed, so it says more about timing than about 2027. Public sector awards for 2027-28 go through the pay review bodies and depend on departmental budgets, which the 28 October Budget will shape.
The private sector figure is the better guide to what a typical employer will offer: close to the 3.0% forecasts. The exception is lower pay. The National Living Wage is expected to rise to about £13.18 an hour in April 2027, a 3.7% increase on the Low Pay Commission's central estimate, and that lifts pay scales just above it too. Our National Living Wage 2027 guide has the details.
What the 2027 UK salary guides say
The recruiters' guides are out early this year and broadly agree with the surveys: pay growth stays measured, with the money going to scarce skills.
- Robert Half's 2027 guide: 53% of UK hiring managers expect pay budgets to rise next year, and 40% are offering above their planned range to land candidates, mostly for specialised skills.
- Michael Page's 2027 guides: 40% of employers have struggled to meet candidates' salary expectations, and about a third of professionals are unhappy with their pay.
- Hays and Robert Walters are still on their 2026 editions; their 2027 guides usually arrive in the new year.
The pattern matters for you: the 3.0% median is a budget average. People with in-demand skills, or who move jobs, get more; the rest get less. For tech roles, our UK tech salary guide shows where pay is moving.
How to ask for more than 3% in 2027
- Price your role, not the average. Look up your job on our UK salary pages or run the Am I underpaid checker. If you're below the market median for your level, that gap is your case, not inflation.
- Turn the percentage into money. Put the offer through the checker above or the salary increase calculator, so you negotiate on what you'd actually take home.
- Time it. Raise it a month or two before your review date, while the budget is still open. April is the busiest month for reviews.
- Bring evidence of scope. New responsibilities, a bigger team or skills the market pays for (the guides single out specialised and AI skills) justify more than the cost-of-living rate.
- Know the alternatives. An outside offer is the strongest evidence. The offer checker compares it against market pay; near £100,000, ask for part of the rise as pension through salary sacrifice.
See your whole payslip after the rise
Pension, student loan and Scottish rates included in the full take-home calculator.
What could change before April 2027
The Autumn Budget on Wednesday 28 October 2026 could change the 2027/28 thresholds. This page and the checker update to the announced rules on the day; our Autumn Budget guide models the scenarios. New ONS earnings and inflation figures arrive every month, and the next employer surveys come out before most pay reviews, so the forecast could move by a few tenths either way. For how a rise compares with inflation in Ireland and Australia too, see real wage growth: pay rise vs inflation.
Pay rise 2027 UK: frequently asked questions
What is the average pay rise in the UK for 2027?
Employers expect about 3.0%. Brightmine's September 2026 forecast puts the median pay award for the year ahead at 3.0%, with 71% of planned awards between 3% and 4%, and the CIPD's Summer 2026 survey also has a 3.0% median. Firms in the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel expect their wage growth to slow to 3.4%. These are forecasts, not settled awards.
Is a 3% pay rise good in 2027?
It's the going rate, so it isn't a bad offer, but it isn't a real-terms rise either. After income tax and National Insurance a 3.0% rise lifts take-home pay by about 2.3% to 2.7% for most salaries, below CPI inflation of 3.5% in September 2026. If inflation falls to the 2.6% forecast for 2027, a 3.0% rise roughly holds its value below the higher-rate threshold.
What pay rise do I need to keep up with inflation?
More than the inflation rate, because tax takes a bigger share of each extra pound than of your whole salary. On £35,000 you need about 4.0% for take-home pay to rise by 3.5%. On £60,000, in the 40% band, about 4.6%. On £100,000, where the Personal Allowance starts to taper, about 6.3%. These are PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimates on 2027/28 rules.
Why does my pay rise look smaller on my payslip?
Because the tax on the extra pay comes from your top rate, not your average rate. A basic-rate taxpayer keeps 72p of each extra pound (20% income tax, 8% National Insurance), a higher-rate taxpayer 58p, and someone between £100,000 and £125,140 just 38p. With the £12,570 allowance and £50,270 threshold frozen until April 2031, more of every rise falls into the higher bands. The rise also only shows in full from the first payslip after it starts, often April.
Will the public sector get a bigger pay rise than the private sector in 2027?
Public sector regular pay grew 6.3% in the year to August 2026, against 3.0% in the private sector, but the ONS says the public figure is distorted by when this year's awards were paid. The 2027-28 public sector awards depend on the pay review bodies and the government's budget, and haven't been set. Don't read this year's gap as next year's.
When do UK pay rises usually happen?
April is the busiest month for pay reviews, since it lines up with the new tax year and the National Living Wage uprating, though many employers review in January or on your start-date anniversary. Public sector awards follow the pay review body timetable and are often paid late and backdated. Ask your manager or HR when your review date is, then raise your case a month or two before it, while budgets are still being set.
I earn just under £100,000. Is a pay rise worth taking?
Yes, but you keep far less of it. Between £100,000 and £125,140 you lose £1 of Personal Allowance for every £2 earned, so each extra pound is taxed at about 62% with National Insurance. A 3.0% rise on £100,000 is worth £1,140 a year after tax. Asking for part of it as extra pension through salary sacrifice keeps your adjusted income under £100,000 and saves the allowance.
Sources and method
Pay forecasts: Brightmine pay forecast (24 September 2026), CIPD Labour Market Outlook (Summer 2026, fieldwork 24 June to 24 July 2026), Bank of England Decision Maker Panel (September 2026, published 2 October 2026). Actuals: ONS average weekly earnings (released 20 October 2026) and ONS consumer price inflation. 2027 inflation forecast: OECD (September 2026).
After-tax figures are PayMetric Labs' own modelled estimates from our UK tax engine: 2027/28 income tax and Class 1 employee National Insurance for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the same rules applied before and after the rise. They exclude pensions, salary sacrifice, student loans, benefits in kind and Scottish rates. This is general information, not personal tax or financial advice.